The kick-off of Prabowo’s aspiration for energy and food resiliency, 8 percent economic growth, feeding millions of children, and eliminating poverty has just started. Those populist agendas are facing constraints from the substantial state budget deficit, debt, the shrinking number of the middle class, and the global dynamic.
It is still the honeymoon period of his presidency. While slowly consolidating its power, Prabowo would discipline its administration by avoiding controversy and unpopular policies. In the beauty contest style, Prabowo would let their ministries prove their performance of themselves. A failure to achieve the promised targets would lead to severe consequences, forced resignation, or a reshuffle.
What Prabowo’s ambition will mean for the rule of law, democracy, and human rights in 2025? What do we say?
(1) Prabowo and the Rule of Law
We are seeing some promising law reform agendas, such as continuing the criminal justice reform through KUHAP revision, the extension of restorative justice, and decriminalization of drug users. However, Ineffective constraints on the executive powers -especially the weak opposition – remain the greatest challenge to the rule of law.
Generally, we would probably see a reduction in the practice of corruption, abuse of power, and ethical violations in various legal institutions, especially in the Supreme Court (MA), the Indonesian Police (Polri), the Prosecutor’s Office, and the Ministry of Law and Human Rights.
Prabowo’s decision to increase the salary of the judges may have resulted in a greater demand for more accountability. Additionally, as the impact of the latest bribe scandal, the Supreme Court would be tightening its internal supervision. However, a substantial evaluation of the independence of the judiciary under the established one-roof system would not likely happen.
The practice of abuse of power by the police may not be as widespread as before. Remain existing but decreased. This will especially happen as public criticism and pressure increase in cases involving the police. At the same time, the police’s political bargaining position may become weaker due to the strengthening of the military’s position. If the revision of KUHAP and the bill of the police successfully led to the reduction of the excessive authority of the police and stronger checks and balances in the criminal justice system, then it would be the end of the powerful police era. However, without a commitment to a comprehensive security sector reform, new emerging threats may rise.
Meanwhile, the KPK and the Attorney General’s office would remain vulnerable to being misused by the government in the weaponizing anti-corruption campaign to eliminate the opposition. However, with the support from donor agencies, we would see a continuation of legal and institutional reform agendas in the attorney general office.
We also would see stricter law enforcement in the extractive sector driven by state-revenue motivation. Illegal mining is an easy target. There is no good choice for the offenders, pay for administrative fine or stronger punishment, and renegotiation with a new boss. Similar treatment is given to plantation companies operating illegally without a permit.
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Andriyani + Hidayat | Counsellors at Law 